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"So, in order to protect the populace from their own governors, the law must be universal.  More, it must require transparent and consistent behaviour from those appointed to rule.  Hence, the rulers must function, not as individuals, but as applicators of perfect justice, the willing part (and here I use the term 'willing' meaning intending and asserting rather than merely accepting) of a machine for good government."
        - The Gone-Away World by Nick Harkaway, p. 125

In computer science we have a data structure called a search tree, where you can quickly find your way from the "root" data item to any of the "branch" or "leaf" items by following simple rules.  But whenever this structure is diagrammed in textbooks or on whiteboards, the root is always drawn at the top, with all the leaves below it:



A similar thing happens with any large organization: the org chart shows the boss at the top (whether that's a CEO, a governor, or the Pope), and like a search tree, the organization often becomes machinelike, blindly following rules and executing orders that come down from the "top."  In a natural tree, by contrast, the roots are of course at the bottom, and their purpose is to "serve" the branches and leaves by collecting water and nutrients and sending them up the trunk.  In both cases something is flowing outward from the root, but in the former case, accountability only runs one way: all those below are held accountable for their work by those above them.  In a tree it runs both ways: both the roots and the leaves provide nutrition without which the tree could not survive.

Is there a way to apply the natural tree model to human organizations?  Well, in the case of democratic government, there is a tradition of referring to elected officials as "public servants," accountable to those who elected them.  This is the definition of "accountability" favored by progressives, in George Lakoff's interpretation, while conservatives prefer to focus on citizens' accountability to the laws -- hence their greater tendency to make "I'll be tough on crime!" a major campaign promise.

The problem is that "downward" accountability -- Senator to constituents, or CEO to employees -- never seems to be nearly as strong as the "upward" kind (using the directionality of the org chart here).  In the case of most religions, I'm not sure "downward" accountability exists at all.  Is there any way to flip this tendency upside-down?

In the case of corporations, employee ownership is the obvious answer -- the CEO is always accountable to the shareholders, so if the employees are the shareholders, one can expect a much more balanced relationship.  So yeah -- corporate democracy now!

In the case of religions, at least religions "of the book," immutable top-down rules are inevitable -- but their interpretation is far from set in stone.  It would be interesting to know how many pastors, rabbis, etc. have tried involving their congregations in theological debates.

In the case of government, the problems are many: how to get citizens more interested in holding their leaders/servants accountable, how to keep politicians from acting more accountable to their biggest campaign financiers than to their constituents, how to give all interest groups the same level of access that high-powered lobbyists currently have.  Public financing of elections is probably a big part of the answer to problem 2.  The others I'll leave for later posts.

Through all of these issues runs the question: is there any way to consistently choose leaders who aren't power-hungry, who are honestly willing to think of themselves as servants?  And if not, does that mean we have no choice but to try to build machinelike structures with rules so inhumanly rigid that it doesn't matter how corrupt the leaders are?
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"From the venerated saints and cathedrals of the Middle Ages to the pop stars and cineplexes of today, [Joe McHugh] explains why images and sound are increasingly supplanting the authority of the printed word, and by so doing, radically altering the cultural, economic, and political landscape of the United States and the rest of the world."
        - Description of a talk I saw at the Seattle Bioneers conference last year called "Slaying the Gorgon: Storytelling and Media in the Electronic Age"

Mr. McHugh is hardly the first person to compare modern media such as TV and movies to a religion; it is now a commonplace in some circles that they serve as the new "opiate of the masses."  But even those who use such dismissive rhetoric can't deny the power of moving images to shape public discourse, rather than merely suppressing it.  This is increasingly true in the Internet era, when passive consumers of media can quickly and easily become producers, with tools that allow them to create and distribute fairly professional-looking video content with very little effort.

The newly released free download Windows Live Movie Maker is such a tool, one I'm proud to have helped to build.  With just a few clicks, considerably more quickly than was possible with our predecessor Windows Movie Maker, our users can turn a selection of their digital photos and videos (along with a probably-copyrighted soundtrack of their choice) into a coherent and compelling story and show it to the world on YouTube or Facebook.

If media is a "religion," it has never been one with a single coherent "scripture"--the stories have always varied widely depending on which "media saint" (Joe McHugh's term for a celebrity actor or talk-show host) is telling them.  Now, though, the diversity of these stories is exploding along with the number of contributors, who no longer need any more wealth and power to become "saints" than is necessary to purchase a computer and Internet service.  Admittedly, we aren't seeing a super-radical reshaping of the media landscape--those with the most money and power still have access to far more eyes than any but the most successful viral YouTube video--but it's a step in what I see as a very positive direction.  (These statements are my personal opinion and not that of my employer.)


P.S. The good news: world electricity usage is projected to decrease this year for the first time since recordkeeping began in 1945, providing a ray of hope that an energy-efficiency revolution could cement this new trend and put us on track to solving the climate crisis.  The bad news: the U.S. just greenlit the Clipper Pipeline to provide ourselves with vast amounts of oil from Canada's tar sands, among the most ecologically destructive fuels per unit usage ever produced.
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Note to Philip Pullman fans: Quibble all you like about the strange rearranging of the plot in the new Golden Compass movie, or the unnecessary renaming of the polar-bear king from Iofur to Ragnar--but please don't complain so much about the lack of overt religious references. Rest assured: in this movie, religion is still the bad guy. It's a thinly-veiled allegory instead of a direct statement, yes, but if that counts as "taking the heart out of it, losing the point of it, castrating it" (as claimed by the National Secular Society), then the makers of the most recent Chronicles of Narnia incarnation must have done the same to their source material by failing to say outright that Aslan is actually a parallel-universe Jesus.

The key to decoding The Golden Compass movie's Magisterium/Authority is the use of the word "heresy," which as everyone knows is most commonly used in a religious context. Given this clue, it becomes easy to recognize the cathedral-style architecture of the Magisterium HQ and the cross that's clearly visible in the Magisterium sigil. The more clever members of the audience will see straight through the awkwardly-phrased line about how "some of our ancestors disobeyed the Authority, thus bringing the evil Dust into the world." And anyone who wants clinching proof need only spend a moment on the Internet to find out what the word "Magisterium" actually means. With that last bit of information in hand, the fact that the script takes pains to avoid saying the word "church" starts to look just plain silly.

Anyway...how about environmental themes in the movie? Well, it does include plenty of free publicity for polar bears, but "Iorek is drowning" doesn't really work as an anti-global-warming slogan. I mean, the guy lives in a parallel universe where, if anything, the problem seems to be too much cold. But how about the idea of daemons, which in my opinion is the coolest thing about the whole story? Doesn't watching all those little critters scampering and flitting around the human characters make you want to live in a green-built community that attracts wildlife rather than repels it? ...Okay, maybe not, but I had to try.
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"People who study the Larger Picture are bound to get depressed. Environmentalists are a gloomy bunch, not so different from the fundamentalists I grew up among. They were never so interested in the beauty of lilies or kindness to strangers as they were fascinated by visions of The Tribulation, Armageddon, the Last Judgment. The world was about to end -- they alone were privy to this information -- and the imminence of it excited them, as if they were in a darkened theater watching the opening titles of a movie in which all hell breaks loose."

-Garrison Keillor, in an essay I clipped out of the Funny Times a long time ago

Fairly obviously, this kind of attitude is unhelpful and to be avoided if possible. Yes, in its way, catastrophic climate change would be a great adventure. But as a character in Charles Stross's novel Accelerando points out, "an adventure is something horrible that happens to someone else." We need to do our absolute best to keep eco-Apocalypses in the realm of science fiction.
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Link to part 1

Science sees itself as superior to religion precisely because it is so much less certain of itself than religions are. Scientists believe that their model of reality is the best that humanity has ever found, precisely because they have always accepted that it is not synonymous with The Truth and probably never will be; that we can only approach The Truth in successive approximations.

Scientists also accept that almost anything is possible. Science might one day literally find God, sitting out there in an eleven-dimensional quantum workshop building Universes from scratch. That's just one in a nearly unlimited ocean of possibilities. The only hard limits on that ocean are that the scientific model must always be consistent with empirical observations. A softer, but still fairly reasonable limit is that new theories should be consistent with the best-established ones we have now. Currently, I can think of four:
  • Quantum mechanics: All matter and energy are made up of tiny entities that can behave as either particles or waves.


  • Relativity: The speed of light is always the same, no matter how you observe it. If you travel very fast relative to the world around you, then space, time, and gravitational forces will appear to distort so that you still see beams of light traveling at the same speed.


  • The standard model of cosmology: Planets orbit stars, billions of stars make up a galaxy, and there are at least hundreds of billions of galaxies in the Universe. The Universe began as a tiny speck about thirteen to fourteen billion years ago and has been exploding outward ever since.


  • Natural selection: Through genetic variation and survival of the fittest organisms, all the diversity of life on Earth arose from a few simple primordial species which arose spontaneously about four billion years ago.
Note that all of these theories seem to run counter to everyday experience; they have only become so well-established because scientists learned to make the right kinds of observations. The fact that most people never get to make these kinds of observations firsthand is a major impediment to the popular acceptance of the scientific worldview.

Now, while scientific theories are always subject to change, that doesn't mean that change is easy. If you make a claim like "Everything we know is wrong and the world is just an elaborate simulation," or "The gaps in the story of evolution on Earth should be filled by invoking an intelligent designer," or even "Global temperatures are rising so fast that human influence must be the dominant cause," then you are making an extraordinary claim. Such claims aren't immediately accepted as valid theories; they require extraordinary evidence. In the case of human-caused climate change, this kind of evidence is available, but the theory is still not The Truth. It could be wrong. Most climatologists think it's probably right, but none of them is certain. A true scientist is never absolutely certain about anything.
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Link to part 1

"When you don’t have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them. The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host countries, which is a political catastrophe. . . .

"The huge design flaw in the post-modern secular state is that you need a traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. . . . By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea about how to run an economy with those demographics. . . .

"If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn’t another America to pull us out."

- a much-posted essay by Herb Meyer, former intelligence official under Reagan

I finally figured out what bothers me about this kind of analysis: Meyer is assuming our situation is analogous to that of the Colonial Fleet on Battlestar Galactica, which consists of less than 50,000 refugees from the destruction of humanity. In an episode called "The Captain's Hand" late in season 2, we learned that people in the Fleet are having so few children that the population will collapse entirely within decades, unless the President enacts an abortion ban.

Listen: America's population recently passed the 300 million mark. If we fail to outlaw abortion and homosexuality and take other religiously-motivated steps to keep the middle class breeding, it's not going to be the end of America any time soon. And while it may be reasonable to panic about Islamic unrest in Europe or the potential cultural battle between traditional Moslem societal models and European democracy, it's much harder to find a good reason to be really afraid of the growing Latino population in the US, a country that used to pride itself on being forged by immigrants.

Even for countries that are shrinking, I have to believe there are solutions, particularly in this day and age. With improvements in medical care, the productive portion of an average European or Japanese citizen's life is getting longer. And with the increasing use of computers and other automation to reduce the physical effort required for many kinds of work, there's quite possibly an easy way to raise the retirement age for countries that need the economic support. After all, the population was going to age anyway, due to those same medical advances; if conservatives don't think human ingenuity can handle that challenge, they're a lot less optimistic about the future than I thought.
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Why would I, an essentially nonreligious person, try to make up something like the Church of Gaia/Earthseed?  Well, in order to solve environmental problems and ensure that they stay solved over the long term, we need what Harvey Mudd professor Paul Steinberg calls "the thousand-year institution," a collection of rules, roles, and responsibilities that is capable of surviving into the distant future without major changes in its core principles.  And religions are the institutions that have best proven their ability to last thousands of years while maintaining large followings.  There are disadvantages, of course--in particular, religions often lack the resilience needed to adapt the implementation of their principles to changing times--but the advantages are too great to be lightly ignored.

Given this, the project of reconciling science and religion gains added importance.  So consider this: a good scientist does not deny the posibility of supernatural explanations; s/he merely says "I can't study that" and focuses on theories that meet the standards of testability and falsifiablity.  There has always been an "outside" where science cannot yet reach, and there probably always will be.

Of course, the reach of science is constantly expanding; at the moment it extends, with some gaps, to the limits of the observable universe and back in time to a few moments after the Big Bang.  But while religious people may see this expansion as "pushing God into the dark corners," the truth is that God has currently been pushed out to about where S/He logically belongs.  After all, if God created the Universe, S/He has to be capable of acting from outside it.  And given that, there is no reason to deny the possibility that God could sometimes reach in and make the Universe behave in ways inconsistent with its own internal logic, so again, the existence of supernatural phenomena can't be ruled out. In particular, the true nature of human consciousness is not and may never be truly understood.

Nevertheless, science will continue to fight for a more complete understanding--the proponents of "p-brane" theory are already looking for evidence of gravitational forces coming from outside our Universe--and those who value faith will continue to fight back.  So do scientists have any equivalent to faith that they can hold out as an olive branch?  Well, there is the idea of "sense of wonder," the scientist's awe at the grandeur of the Cosmos and the marvellous order that has arisen spontaneously in the form of galaxies, complex molecules, and most especially life.  This provides at least some grounds for the idea that life is precious, an idea that motivates the systems of ethics that lie at the core of most religions.
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This post contains some dubious peripheral arguments, but its central thesis is much less dubious. In fact, it's a tautology obvious to any student of population ecology: the population within a species that grows fastest will come to dominate that species. In humanity's case, Muslims are at or near the top of that list, while more secular affluent populations in Western countries are near the bottom. In short, demography rather than terrorism will bring about the global dominance of Islam, unless we Westerners do something about it.

This thesis should be of interest to liberal environmentalists for three reasons. First, convincing people to have smaller families is an uphill battle because the populations we haven't convinced yet are constantly getting larger. Secondly, a minor corollary of the thesis is that religious conservatives in America, who tend to have relatively large families, will continue to outvote secular liberals by increasingly wide margins. Third, while we may disparage conservatives for taking overly drastic measures against terrorism (perhaps partly because we're defensive about our ideological association with "ecoterrorists"), these population trends are a much larger global issue, one that forces us to think about our position on Islam and its various sects.

Mr. Steyn doesn't really propose "solutions" directly, but four obvious ones come to mind:
  1. Assume that it's not a problem, because as Muslims gradually take over the European population (for instance), they will have to increasingly adopt European values (as opposed to, for instance, suddenly deciding to lob England's and France's nukes at America, which to his credit Mr. Steyn doesn't predict).

  2. Start having a lot more babies, which, in addition to being hard for middle-class people to pay for, will exacerbate the overpopulation problem that conservatives like Mr. Steyn can currently afford to ignore.

  3. Get Muslims to stop having so many babies, which would require either lots of economic improvement in poor Islamic nations (the so-called demographic transition) or lots of wars.

  4. If we don't like 2 or 3 but are still worried about the spread of the more constricting aspects of Muslim law, try to gradually convince Islamic religious leaders to change those laws.
Then again, the global-scale application of any set of constricting laws is unlikely to work in the face of the accelerating change that characterizes our time. That change and its chaotic results, rather than the unchanging order that religions try to impose, is the problem environmentalists must continue to focus on.
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According to Mr. Wright, my tenth-grade social studies teacher, religion provides people with answers to three important questions: Where did we come from? Why are we here? Where are we going? The last question is particularly important, since the answers given are usually used to counteract the fear of death. Belief in an afterlife or resurrection is probably most of what makes religion so attractive to so many people. So if the science-based Church of Gaia/Earthseed is ever going to get anywhere, it will probably need to include one or more of these concepts: read the list )
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Life is sacred. Thou shalt not worship anything else.

Change is eternal. Thou shalt not try to set up a changeless order. Doing so will only lead to unnecessary Chaos.

Chaos is inevitable, but can be managed by Life.

Life keeps Chaos at bay by building complex structures, on every scale from the microscopic (bacteria) to the planetary (Gaia).

Life Changes slowly through evolution, becoming ever more complex and shaping itself to fit its Changing environment.

Overly rapid Change leads to unnecessary Chaos, and unnecessary death.

Humanity must slow the pace of the Change we have unleashed, so that we can direct and shape it well enough to avoid creating too much Chaos. Only then can humanity fulfill its Destiny, which is to become Earthseed.

The Destiny of Earthseed is to take root on other worlds, there to grow new biospheres, Gaia's children.
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It's pretty well accepted that on average, men are better at spatial or "left-brain" skills and women are better at verbal or "right-brain" skills. What would human history have been like if this were reversed?

Would women have been the hunters and leaders, men the gatherers and childrearers? If so, would the matriarchy be any more peaceful than the patriarchy has been? On the one hand, women would still be the childbearers and would care for infants, so they might be more inclined to avoid violence than male leaders are. On the other hand, more limited verbal skills and a history of hunting may hinder nonviolent conflict resolution irrespective of gender.

And what would all this mean for the environment? Would we call it "Father Earth" instead of "Mother Earth?" The Ancient Egyptians actually had a male earth god, but what if more cultures had been like them? It would be nicer to posit that the childbearing role would still lead to the "Mother Earth" association, linking nature to the gender in power and perhaps making environmentalism a constant throughout history. But all that is wishful thinking.

On the other hand, given that sexual roles would remain the same, patriarchy might still become prevalent, though in a form that might be more amenable to environmentalism. If the gatherers rather than the hunters were in charge, the concept of a battle between humanity and nature would be less likely to shape the policies of those leaders.

March 2015

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